First of, it’s interesting to note the swing of Crypto Twitter sentiment [and market sentiment in general] from near complete bullishness at the top to near complete bearishness at the bottom. And this is what you’d expect. But it is the task of TA to rely on purely technical factors, and be contrarian to sentiment if it need be [something TA enables]. Indeed, from a contrarian perspective, it is a positive that bearish sentiment now dominates.
After a manic rise in the price of Bitcoin during the course of 2020, we’ve seen a lengthy correction for well over a year now [from the first top] that has recently culminated in a capitulation to 25K. The question everyone is asking is whether that was THE bottom, or whether new lows can be expected.
This article will seek to outline the arguments, from a technical and fallible perspective, for the low being in at around the 25K zone [this does not preclude the likelihood of that area being re-tested in the near future]. I’ll look first at the shorter-term TA [always a relative term], then at the longer-term model of the LGC, and finally at a buying strategy for the prospective BTC investor who as yet has not established a position.